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Special on Autopromotec Conference 2018

Automobiles, investments in mobility4.0 to enhance business opportunities

Dino Collazzo

Electric vehicles, connectivity and self-driving systems are the megatrends responsible for the current developments in the automotive sector.
No longer a revolution, but rather a reality. That is how the technological evolution currently affecting the automotive field should be considered. The development of connected automobiles, Artificial Intelligence and electrification have long been included in the industrial planning of both manufacturers and aftermarket companies, and within the next few years vehicles will have  profiles and functions that are radically different from the ones we are accustomed to driving or seeing nowadays, becoming real hubs of technological innovation and development, the driving force behind what many define as a "new spring" for the automotive industry. A digital transformation that will impact production processes, the creation of increasingly “intelligent vehicles”, as well as consumer habits, leaning significantly towards sharing rather than possessing.

Connected cars and autonomous driving

The Internet of things and autonomous driving are the key elements responsible for changing the idea we have of cars. In fact, thanks to intelligent software, sensors, radar and wireless connections, new vehicles can easily be likened to electronic devices on four wheels, real personal assistants able to support us in our daily needs, and if necessary, to take control and autonomously drive us, in a not so distant future, from home to work without having to put our hands on the wheel.
Just think, for example, at the  huge quality leap voice controls have made thanks to machine learning. If, until recently, standard phrases were the only way to interact with an infotainment system, it is now possible to formulate more complex questions and obtain precise answers. Not only. The progress of Adas systems (Advanced driver assistance system) has made driving safer and in some cases even autonomous. Parking sensors, automatic emergency braking, lane change warning and speed control devices are now standard features in most passenger cars and are rapidly developing. All this translates in an expected 26 billion dollar turnover on the global market by 2025, according to a forecast by Bain & Company, over three times more compared to the 8 billion recorded in 2016.

As a result, modern vehicles are now able to process a huge number of data, thanks to a computing power comparable to 20 average PCs, with 100 million lines of programming codes and are able to process up to 25 gigabytes of data per hour. In this complexity lies the most important challenge for the automotive industry and its supply chain. In fact, being able to design software and smart components to be installed on board our vehicle able to connect with the surrounding environment - road signs for example as well as sensors that will transform urban areas into smart cities - will enable the automotive industry to withstand the fierce competition from a number of hi-tech companies. Protecting the sector’s business will be crucial, especially if one considers that, according to a study by the Autopromotec Observatory on Pwc data, the market is expected to reach a global value of € 142 billion by 2022. Of course, these are forecasts, which will likely be influenced by consumer choices and  preferences. If, in fact, on the one hand, the desire for greater connectivity is growing, one cannot help noticing that also concerns about digital security and privacy protection is likewise reaching red alert levels. Two elements that, if not properly addressed, would constitute an obstacle to the global spread of connected vehicles. And that is precisely why the entire automotive industry must accelerate investment in cyber-security and data anonymization and protection.
 

Electrification

Motorists all over the world are increasingly leaning, albeit at rather slow rate, towards electric mobility. A trend that is prodding several manufacturers to invest in what is considered, at least in the opinion of different analysts, tomorrow’s mobility. As a result, each new model launched on the market and equipped with a “traditional” heat engine, is soon followed by a hybrid, plug-in hybrid and bev (battery electric vehicle) version. According to the latest edition of the Global electric vehicles outlook, issued by the International energy agency, in 2017 the number of hybrid and plug-in cars around the world exceeded 3 million units. With a 54% increase compared to 2016. China is the most prosperous market - last year 580 thousand electric cars were sold (+ 72% compared to 2016) - followed by Europe (especially the northern countries such as Norway, Iceland and Sweden) and the United States. The spread of these vehicles is following closely the multiplication of recharging infrastructures. According to the same report, in 2017 the number of domestic and workplace chargers around the world was estimated at almost 3 million. To these we must add the approximately 430 thousand public charging stations, a quarter of which are fast charging stations. The increasing demand for electric cars, is connected to two main factors: the first being political, with governments encouraging the purchase of such vehicles through incentives and public investments in infrastructure, and the progress made by the industry in enhancing battery performance while reducing costs. Furthermore, analysts predict that by 2030 electric vehicles could number as far as 125 million units. What about the Italian market? At the moment, this type of technology is still quite marginal, as motorists prefer other types of alternative fuels (CNG and LPG). Last year only 1,964 battery electric vehicles (bev) and 2,863 plug-in electric vehicles (phev) were registered. The slow growth of this sector, due in part to the lack of adequate infrastructures, runs the risk of undermining the development of a national production system of electric power-units. A delay that, given the global race towards this type of mobility, can hardly be afforded.





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